Report 14b2fee7-c59d-4d06-acf6-dcc202938eac · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Executive Summary: Virginia Capacity Report (June 2026) Virginia’s data center ecosystem is navigating a period of significant price volatility and shifting consumption patterns. While statewide capacity scores remain uniform across leading counties, escalating retail electricity prices and seasonal load fluctuations present a narrowing margin for operational efficiency. ### Energy Pricing and Consumption Trends The retail price of electricity in Virginia has reached a recent peak, hitting 12.23 cents/kWh in March 2026 [13e72d26]. This follows a volatile first quarter where prices surged to 13.92 cents/kWh in February from 13.14 cents/kWh in January [13e72d26]. Year-over-year comparisons show a marked increase from the 10.75 cents/kWh recorded in March 2025, representing an approximate 13.7% climb in power costs over 12 months [13e72d26]. Retail sales of electricity reached 11,256,633 MWh in March 2026, a decline from the winter peak of 14,043,428 MWh in January 2026 [13e72d26]. Net generation data for March indicates a diversified portfolio, led by 8,059,417 MWh from primary thermal/nuclear sources and supplemented by smaller contributions from renewable assets, such as 0.195 MWh and 2.347 MWh from distributed sources [13e72d26]. ### Regional Capacity Assessments Current Capacity Scores for the top 50 counties, including primary hubs like Fairfax, Loudoun (Arlington/Fairfax vicinity), and Henrico, show a standardized overall rating of 53.25. * **Energy Score:** 60.00 * **Workforce Score:** 50.00 * **Water Score:** 55.00 * **Housing Score:** 50.00 This parity suggests that while infrastructure exists (Energy 60), the "soft" infrastructure—specifically housing and workforce (both at 50)—is the primary bottleneck preventing higher overall capacity scores across the Commonwealth. ### Institutional Growth and Talent Pipeline Public sector investments are focused on mitigating the workforce deficit. Virginia Tech and the Carilion Clinic are expanding research capacity in the Roanoke region [6e4dbe13]. Furthermore, state-level initiatives are prioritizing bespoke training programs to align the talent pipeline with emerging AI and cybersecurity demands [6e4dbe13]. These partnerships are intended to sustain Virginia’s standing as a top state for technical talent amid increasing national competition [6e4dbe13]. ### Strategic Outlook **Gaining Capacity:** Roanoke and various university-adjacent corridors are gaining relevance through research-driven investment and innovative partnerships [6e4dbe13]. **Constrained Regions:** Northern Virginia and the Richmond outskirts continue to face downward pressure from energy price volatility and stagnant workforce/housing scores (50.00), which lag behind base energy availability [13e72d26]. **Leadership Watchlist:** Analysts should monitor the July 2026 energy data to determine if the spring price moderation observed in prior years (e.g., May 2025 at 10.73 cents/kWh) repeats, or if the 12-cent floor established in early 2026 becomes a permanent baseline [13e72d26].

Monthly Data Center Capacity Report — 6/18/2026

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