Report 2439f47f-40a8-4c91-9e52-d4c0c0216f01 · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Energy Capacity Executive Briefing: June 2026 **Price Volatility and Rate Escalation** Virginia’s energy landscape is currently defined by significant upward pressure on retail prices. As of February 2026, average retail prices reached 13.92 cents/kWh, a 31.7% increase from the 10.57 cents/kWh recorded in April 2024 [13e72d26]. Prices have demonstrated a sustained upward trend throughout early 2026, rising from 13.14 cents/kWh in January to 13.92 cents/kWh in February, before a partial retraction to 12.23 cents/kWh in March [13e72d26]. This volatility reflects a shifting cost structure in the Commonwealth’s energy market over the last 24 months. **Consumption and Sales Dynamics** Retail sales of electricity continue to exhibit sharp seasonal fluctuations. Market demand peaked in early 2025 at 14,337 thousand MWh (January 2025) and saw a similar winter surge in 2026 at 14,043 thousand MWh (January 2026) [13e72d26]. By March 2026, retail sales settled at 11,256 thousand MWh, representing a 2.5% increase over March 2025 levels (10,976 thousand MWh), suggesting a moderate year-over-year rise in baseline demand [13e72d26]. **Regional Capacity and Infrastructure Scores** Capacity scores across the Commonwealth remain uniform across the primary assessed counties. Major economic hubs—including Fairfax, Henrico, and Arlington—currently maintain an energy capacity score of 60.00 and an overall capacity score of 53.25 [Latest Capacity Scores]. These scores are balanced by workforce and housing metrics, which both hold at 50.00, while water capacity remains slightly higher at 55.00 [Latest Capacity Scores]. The uniformity of these scores across 50 measured jurisdictions—from Accomack to King William—indicates a synchronized statewide infrastructure baseline rather than localized competitive advantages in capacity at this time. **Gaining and Constrained Regions** * **Gaining Capacity:** Jurisdictions with stable scores (60.00 in energy) such as Roanoke and Blacksburg benefit from concentrated institutional investments, including Virginia Tech’s research expansions and Carilion Clinic’s usability initiatives [6e4dbe13, Latest Capacity Scores]. * **Constrained Regions:** Despite high energy scores, the total retail sales volume (peaking above 14,000 thousand MWh in winter) and rising costs place a premium on energy efficiency in high-density corridors like Northern Virginia (Fairfax/Arlington) where workforce and housing capacity (50.00) lag behind energy infrastructure scores [13e72d26, Latest Capacity Scores]. **Strategic Outlook for Leaders** State and regional leaders should monitor the divergence between rising retail energy prices and static housing/workforce capacity scores. While the talent pipeline is being bolstered through University partnerships and bespoke training programs [6e4dbe13], the rising cost of energy—now consistently exceeding 12 cents/kWh compared to the 10-cent baseline of 2024—may impact long-term industrial competitiveness [13e72d26]. Priority should be placed on investigating the drivers of the Q1 2026 price spike to ensure Virginia's energy capacity (scored at 60) remains an economic asset rather than a cost burden.

Monthly Energy Capacity Report — 6/18/2026

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