Report 4b3095a9-0ffa-41da-be75-e437899e1457 · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief **Date:** August 31, 2026 **Geography:** Virginia #### Energy and Utility Fundamentals Virginia’s energy generation profile is currently dominated by Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle units, which provide 9,611.1 MW of the state’s total 31,088 MW operating capacity [53b3da09]. Nuclear assets remain a critical baseline contributor at 3,654.4 MW, while Solar Photovoltaic has scaled to 5,300.3 MW as of June 2026 [53b3da09]. Despite this diversified base, retail electricity prices have experienced upward volatility, rising from 12.07 cents/kWh in December 2025 to 12.77 cents/kWh by June 2026 [13e72d26]. Water resource availability shows significant regional variance. As of late August, the Potomac River near Washington D.C. maintained a flow of 3,060 cfs, while the James River near Richmond recorded 1,300 cfs [589b5762]. In contrast, the Southside region shows acute constraint, with Hyco Creek near Leasburg reporting 0 cfs [589b5762]. #### Regional Capacity Analysis Capacity scores, which aggregate energy, workforce, housing, and water metrics, reveal distinct geographic leaders and laggards: * **Gaining Capacity:** Albemarle County (57.97) and Lynchburg City (57.71) lead the state in overall capacity [Latest Capacity Scores]. These areas benefit from exceptionally high housing scores (86.25 and 82.92, respectively) compared to the state average. Lancaster and Westmoreland Counties also show robust infrastructure health, with housing scores exceeding 92.0 [Latest Capacity Scores]. * **Constrained Regions:** The Southwest continues to face significant capacity headwinds. Lee County (41.5), Bland County (41.8), and Scott County (42.0) represent the lowest overall scores in the state, largely due to depressed housing and infrastructure metrics [Latest Capacity Scores]. * **Urban Variance:** While Manassas Park City maintains a high overall score of 55.87, nearby Manassas City is hampered by a housing score of 48.33, indicating potential density or affordability bottlenecks despite a similar workforce and energy profile [Latest Capacity Scores]. #### Compliance and Infrastructure Risks Public health data indicates persistent localized failures in water infrastructure. EPA records show recent health-based violations in several systems, including six violations for VA1071460 in May 2025 and ongoing issues in systems VA1063220 and VA1077411 as recently as June and July 2025 [38179aac]. Historically, systems VA1105600 and VA1105700 have been major outliers, accumulating 31 and 24 violations respectively [38179aac]. #### Analyst Watchlist Leaders should monitor the divergence between rising retail energy costs [13e72d26] and the state’s aggressive pivot toward talent pipeline development through university research partnerships [6e4dbe13]. While Virginia is cited as a top state for talent [6e4dbe13], the disparity in housing scores—ranging from 40.42 in Tazewell to 92.92 in Westmoreland—suggests that workforce mobility may be restricted by residential inventory rather than labor availability [Latest Capacity Scores]. Further attention is required for the Roanoke region, where new investments in research centers are coinciding with a relatively moderate overall capacity score of 53.77 [6e4dbe13, Latest Capacity Scores].

Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief — 8/31/2026

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