Report 4e368e34-8283-493c-a7f1-2c20a77c8a40 · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief **Date:** June 18, 2026 **Geography:** Virginia #### Energy Costs and Sales Volatility Virginia’s energy landscape is currently defined by significant upward pressure on retail prices and seasonal fluctuations in consumption. As of March 2026, the average retail price reached 12.23 cents/kWh, a 15.7% increase from the 10.57 cents/kWh recorded in April 2024 [13e72d26]. Prices peaked in February 2026 at 13.92 cents/kWh before the slight moderation in March [13e72d26]. Retail sales volume has mirrored this volatility, falling from a high of 14,043,428 MWh in January 2026 to 11,256,633 MWh in March 2026 [13e72d26]. Net generation figures for March 2026 show a diversified but concentrated output, with primary generation segments contributing 8,059 MWh and 7,816 MWh respectively [13e72d26]. #### Hydraulic Capacity and Regional Benchmarks Real-time water flow metrics as of June 18, 2026, indicate varying levels of hydrological capacity across the Commonwealth. The Northern region maintains the highest throughput via the Potomac River near Washington D.C. at 2,650 cfs [589b5762]. In contrast, the Southside region is exhibiting signs of significant constraint. The Roanoke River at Altavista is flowing at 56 cfs, while Hyco Creek near Leasburg is reporting 0 cfs, suggesting localized industrial or cooling water limitations [589b5762]. Central Virginia shows moderate capacity with the James River at Richmond recording 1,020 cfs [589b5762]. #### Capacity Scores and Talent Initiatives Statewide capacity scoring remains uniform across the top 50 counties, with an overall score of 53.25 [Latest Capacity Scores]. Energy capacity is currently the strongest sub-metric at 60, while workforce and housing both lag at 50 [Latest Capacity Scores]. To address workforce constraints, state entities are emphasizing "bespoke training" for emerging needs and federal research partnerships to bolster the talent pipeline [6e4dbe13]. Notable regional investments include the rise of a research center in Roanoke, a joint effort by Virginia Tech and Carilion Clinic [6e4dbe13]. #### Regional Summary * **Gaining Capacity:** **Northern Virginia** remains the leader in water resource availability [589b5762]. **Western Virginia** (Roanoke) is seeing growth in institutional research capacity [6e4dbe13]. * **Constrained:** **Southside** is experiencing acute water flow limitations [589b5762]. All major counties face stagnant **Housing and Workforce** scores (50.0), which remain the primary bottlenecks to overall scaling [Latest Capacity Scores]. #### Executive Watchlist Leaders should monitor the divergence between rising retail energy prices and fluctuating net generation [13e72d26]. The inability of workforce and housing scores to move above the 50.0 threshold suggests that current talent pipeline initiatives have yet to manifest in verified capacity metrics [Latest Capacity Scores, 6e4dbe13]. Urgent attention is required for Southside water levels if industrial cooling or processing requirements are present in that corridor.

Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief — 6/18/2026

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