Report 823c7481-02be-4ee1-aed4-ea458f05c6d7 · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief **Date:** August 24, 2026 **Geography:** Commonwealth of Virginia #### Executive Summary Virginia’s infrastructure capacity is characterized by a stable but diversifying energy grid and regional disparities in housing and water reliability. While energy generation remains dominated by natural gas and nuclear assets [53b3da09], recent fluctuations in retail pricing [13e72d26] and localized water quality violations [38179aac] present headwinds for expansion in specific corridors. #### Energy and Utility Profile Total operating generation capacity in Virginia stands at 31,076 MW across 245 plants [53b3da09]. The state’s energy mix is led by Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle (9,611.1 MW), Nuclear (3,654.4 MW), and Hydroelectric Pumped Storage (3,109.3 MW) [53b3da09]. Renewable integration continues, with Solar Photovoltaic reaching 5,300.3 MW and a nascent offshore wind presence of 12 MW [53b3da09]. Retail electricity prices have shown significant volatility. After reaching a peak of 13.92 cents/kWh in February 2026, prices moderated to 12.63 cents/kWh by May 2026 [13e72d26]. Retail sales of electricity also moderated to 11,465.8 thousand MWh in May 2026, down from a seasonal peak of 14,043.4 thousand MWh in January 2026 [13e72d26]. #### Water Supply and Quality Constraints Hydrological data for August 24, 2026, indicates varied flow rates across major basins. The Potomac River near Washington D.C. remains the highest volume source at 3,120 cfs, followed by the James River near Richmond at 1,960 cfs [589b5762]. In contrast, the Southside region shows signs of constraint, with Hyco Creek near Leasburg reporting just 0.47 cfs [589b5762]. Public health metrics highlight systemic water quality issues in specific systems. EPA SDWIS data reveals significant historical and recent health-based violations, most notably in systems VA1105600 (31 violations) and VA1105700 (24 violations) [38179aac]. Recent 2025 violations were recorded for systems VA1071460 (6 violations) and VA1063220 (2 violations) [38179aac], suggesting ongoing maintenance or source-water challenges. #### Regional Capacity Gains and Pressures Capacity scores indicate that housing availability is the primary differentiator for regional growth potential: * **Gaining Capacity:** Albemarle County (Overall 57.97) and Lynchburg City (Overall 57.71) lead in aggregate scores, supported by strong housing metrics of 86.25 and 82.92, respectively [Latest Capacity Scores]. Lancaster and Westmoreland Counties show the highest housing capacity scores, both exceeding 92.0 [Latest Capacity Scores]. * **Constrained Regions:** Southwest Virginia remains under pressure. Lee County (41.5), Scott County (42.0), and Bland County (41.8) report the lowest overall capacity scores, largely driven by housing metrics below 52.0 [Latest Capacity Scores]. Tazewell County reports a critical housing constraint with a score of 40.42 [Latest Capacity Scores]. #### Strategic Indicators to Watch 1. **Workforce Development:** Continued investment in "bespoke training" for emerging needs is cited as a priority for maintaining Virginia’s talent pipeline [6e4dbe13]. 2. **Research Expansion:** The rise of the Roanoke research center, supported by Virginia Tech and Carilion Clinic, suggests a regional shift toward high-tech clinical and usability research [6e4dbe13]. 3. **Water Reliability:** Leaders should monitor the impact of aging infrastructure in systems like VA1071460, where health-based violations persisted into mid-2025 [38179aac].

Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief — 8/24/2026

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