Report 83b64399-596c-4732-8546-71227ffe4de8 · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Virginia Capacity Report **Date:** June 18, 2026 **Subject:** Quarterly Energy Cost Volatility and Regional Water Flow Dynamics #### Energy Market Stabilization and Cost Trends Virginia's energy landscape shows significant price variance across retail sectors as of Q1 2026. Data from March 2026 indicates a weighted average retail price range from 10.16 cents/kWh to 17.05 cents/kWh [13e72d26]. While high-end retail prices rose from 15.27 cents/kWh in December 2025 to 17.05 cents/kWh in March 2026, the lower-end baseline remains relatively stable near 10.25 cents/kWh [13e72d26]. Total retail sales of electricity peaked in January 2026 at over 14,043 thousand MWh before declining to 11,256 thousand MWh in March, reflecting seasonal demand shifts [13e72d26]. Net generation figures for March 2026 highlight a reliance on diverse sources, with the largest single reporting block contributing 6,299 MWh to the grid [13e72d26]. #### Regional Water Capacity and Hydrological Constraints Real-time USGS data from June 18, 2026, indicates varying levels of water capacity across the Commonwealth. The Northern and Central regions maintain relatively robust flows, while parts of the Shenandoah and Southside regions show potential constraints. * **Northern/Shenandoah Regional Capacity:** The Potomac River near Washington D.C. reports a flow of 2,650 cfs [589b5762]. However, the North Fork Shenandoah at Cootes Store is significantly constrained at 22.6 cfs, suggesting a localized bottleneck in the upper valley despite stronger flows downstream at Millville (705 cfs) [589b5762]. * **Central Virginia:** The James River exhibits stable capacity, with 1,130 cfs at Cartersville and 1,020 cfs near Richmond [589b5762]. * **Western/Southside Constraints:** The Roanoke River at Roanoke (37.4 cfs) and Altavista (56 cfs) shows low flow levels compared to major river basins, which may impact industrial cooling or municipal intake if levels continue to trend downward [589b5762]. #### Workforce and Infrastructure Scoring Uniform capacity scores across the top 50 counties, including Fairfax, Henrico, and Albemarle, suggest a standardized baseline in state-level infrastructure planning. Current metrics assign an overall capacity score of 53.25, underpinned by consistent energy scores (60) and moderated by workforce (50) and housing (50) scores [Latest Capacity Scores]. These figures indicate that while energy infrastructure is viewed as a comparative strength, housing and labor availability remain the primary factors limiting overall capacity expansion. #### Institutional Strategic Outlook Leaders should transition focus toward the following developments: 1. **Talent Pipeline Development:** State agencies are emphasizing "bespoke training" and university partnerships (Virginia Tech, Carilion Clinic) to address the workforce score ceiling [6e4dbe13]. 2. **Hydrological Monitoring:** Low CFS readings in the Roanoke and Blackwater (22 cfs) rivers require monitoring for any industrial expansion projects in the Southside or Hampton Roads regions [589b5762]. 3. **Energy Price Divergence:** The widening spread between low-cost and high-cost retail power (nearly 7 cents/kWh) may influence site selection for energy-intensive sectors like AI and data centers [13e72d26, 6e4dbe13].

Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief — 6/18/2026

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