Report c01195a1-b86f-452b-b49d-4eb7358d9bc8 · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief **Date:** September 7, 2026 **Geography:** Commonwealth of Virginia #### Energy Capacity and Cost Analysis Virginia’s total operating generation capacity stood at 31,088 MW as of June 2026 [53b3da09]. The portfolio remains dominated by Natural Gas Combined Cycle (9,611 MW) and Nuclear (3,654 MW), though Solar Photovoltaic has reached 5,300 MW of capacity [53b3da09]. Despite this, retail electricity prices have experienced significant upward volatility, peaking at 13.92 cents/kWh in February 2026 before settling at 12.77 cents/kWh in June [13e72d26]. Retail sales reached 12,941 thousand MWh in June 2026, a slight increase from 12,853 thousand MWh in June 2025 [13e72d26]. Net generation figures for June 2026 show a peak of 10,091 MWh, highlighting a continued reliance on regional grid imports to meet retail demand [13e72d26]. #### Regional Water Stress and Infrastructure Compliance Hydrological data for September 7, 2026, indicates acute flow constraints in the Southside and Western regions. The Hyco Creek near Leasburg recorded 0 cfs, while the Roanoke River at Roanoke is operating at a marginal 11.1 cfs [589b5762]. In contrast, the Potomac River near Washington D.C. (2,070 cfs) and the James River at Cartersville (2,030 cfs) maintain robust flow volumes [589b5762]. Infrastructure reliability remains a localized concern. EPA SDWIS records show significant historical and recent health-based water violations, notably 31 violations for system VA1105600 and 24 for VA1105700 [38179aac]. Recent 2025 violations were recorded in systems VA1105500 (January), VA1071460 (May), VA1063220 (June), and VA1077411 (July), suggesting persistent maintenance or source-water challenges in specific municipal districts [38179aac]. #### Capacity Score Variations * **Gaining Capacity:** Albemarle County (57.97 overall) and Lynchburg City (57.71) lead in stability, supported by high housing scores of 86.25 and 82.92, respectively [Latest Capacity Scores]. Lancaster and Westmoreland Counties also show high housing capacity, both exceeding a score of 92 [Latest Capacity Scores]. * **Constrained Regions:** The Southwest region continues to face capacity deficits. Lee County (41.5), Scott County (42.0), and Bland County (41.8) report the lowest overall scores, primarily driven by housing scores below 52 [Latest Capacity Scores]. Tazewell County holds a particularly low housing score of 40.42 [Latest Capacity Scores]. #### Leadership Watchlist 1. **Supply-Demand Mismatch:** With retail sales (12,941k MWh) consistently outstripping net generation (10,091 MWh) in peak months, leaders should monitor the integration rate of the 230.6 MW battery storage capacity to mitigate price spikes [53b3da09, 13e72d26]. 2. **Water Scarcity:** The 0 cfs reading at Hyco Creek and low flows in the Roanoke River necessitate close monitoring of industrial water withdrawals in the Southside and Western regions [589b5762]. 3. **Infrastructure Integrity:** Frequent health-based violations in mid-2025 indicate a need for targeted capital improvement in the affected water systems to prevent degradation of regional capacity scores [38179aac].

Weekly Virginia Capacity Brief — 9/7/2026

Sources