Report c106fca7-55b0-4273-876d-e4efd8e5841c · The Virginia Capacity Report

### Monthly Water Capacity Report: Virginia **Date:** June 18, 2026 **Regulator/Source:** USGS Water Services; VEDP #### Executive Summary Virginia’s hydro-capacity exhibits significant regional variance as of mid-June 2026. While the Central and Northern corridors maintain robust volumetric flow, Southside Virginia and portions of the Shenandoah Valley show early indicators of constraint. Across 50 tracked counties, the uniform water capacity score remains at 55.0, contributing to a baseline overall capacity rating of 53.25 [Capacity Scores]. #### Regional Flow Analysis * **Central Virginia (High Capacity):** The James River serves as a primary liquidity hub, with flow rates at Cartersville (1,130 cfs) and Richmond (1,020 cfs) ensuring stable industrial and municipal supply [589b5762]. * **Northern Virginia (Stable):** The Potomac River near Washington D.C. remains the state's highest-volume artery at 2,650 cfs, supported by the Rappahannock at Fredericksburg (213 cfs) [589b5762]. * **Shenandoah Valley (Variable):** Significant volatility is noted between the North Fork at Cootes Store (22.6 cfs) and Millville (705 cfs), suggesting heavy reliance on downstream accumulation [589b5762]. * **Southside (Constrained):** Critical constraints are emerging in Southside, evidenced by Hyco Creek near Leasburg reporting 0 cfs and the Roanoke River at Altavista showing a restricted flow of 56 cfs [589b5762]. * **Western/Southwest (Moderate):** Dunlap Creek near Covington (290 cfs) and the Clinch River at Cleveland (196 cfs) provide stable, though not excessive, capacity for Western industrial users [589b5762]. #### Institutional and Workforce Context While water metrics vary, the Commonwealth is leveraging multi-sector research partnerships to offset infrastructure pressure. Recent initiatives from Virginia Tech and the Carilion Clinic in Roanoke are designed to integrate usability and innovation into regional growth strategies [6e4dbe13]. Furthermore, bespoke training programs are being deployed to align the emerging workforce with the requirements of high-water-use industries, such as advanced manufacturing and research [6e4dbe13]. #### Capacity Scores and Industrial Outlook The latest capacity scores for 50 prominent counties—ranging from Albemarle to Fairfax—indicate a consolidated water score of 55 [Capacity Scores]. This parity suggests that while localized river flows fluctuate, the administrative and infrastructural capacity to manage these resources is currently viewed as uniform by state metrics. The overall capacity score (53.25) is currently buoyed by higher energy ratings (60) but weighed down by housing and workforce benchmarks (50) [Capacity Scores]. #### Outlook and Watchlist 1. **Southside Scarcity:** The 0 cfs reading at Hyco Creek warrants immediate observation for potential industrial water-use restrictions in Southside [589b5762]. 2. **Shenandoah Headwaters:** Low flow at Cootes Store (22.6 cfs) may signal upcoming supply tightening for agricultural and industrial users in the upper Valley [589b5762]. 3. **Capital Infrastructure:** Leaders should monitor the Potomac flow (2,650 cfs) as the primary indicator for Northern Virginia’s ability to sustain further data center and high-density residential expansion [589b5762].

Monthly Water Capacity Report — 6/18/2026

Sources